Climate Change and the Future of Human Security in the Arab Region

Climate change, including extreme events beyond the natural climate variability, has caused widespread adverse impacts along with their associated losses and damages to nature and humans. However, despite the efforts exerted in relation to development, adaptation, and vulnerability reduction across various sectors and regions, it is observed that the most vulnerable humans and systems are disproportionately impacted.

Climate changes are conducive to the erosion of long-term opportunities for human development, undermining productivity, and decline in human capabilities. Despite that no single climate shock can be attributed to climate change, climate change may lead to the exacerbation of dangers and the heightening of vulnerabilities facing Arab people, especially those who live in developing regions. Thus, under weak economic and social conditions, more pressure is put on coping mechanisms, and individuals become shackled with deprivation and powerlessness. As such, the impacts of climate change constrain the abilities of individuals to break free from poverty and deprivation, which is the goal of human security.

In this context, there has been increased recognition by international institutions, scientists, practitioners, and policy makers of climate change resulting in direct and indirect impacts on various levels and dimensions of human security, local and regional. This was not only due to potential dangers, but rather due to the combined effects of large-scale environmental, economic, social, demographic, and technological changes.

Objectives of the Report

The overall objective of the report is to explore the impacts of climate change on human security in the Arab region and to highlight the efforts of various interventions, along with proposing some strategic insights to avoid and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on Arab people. This objective is realized through few sub-objectives, namely:

• Developing a map of potential climate changes in the Arab region.
• Reviewing the impacts of climate change on water security and its future in the Arab region.
• Exploring the impacts of climate change on the reality of food security and its future in the Arab region.
• Examining the impacts of climate change on health security and its future in the Arab region.
• Identifying the existing links among climate change, migration and displacement trajectories, and conflict paths over resources in the Arab region.

Methodology of the Report

The report is based on combining a number of methods and tools, in a manner appropriate to the nature of the topic and its various variables through analysis, comparison and investigation. The researchers employed the secondary analysis methodology, applied the critical approach, and combined quantitative and qualitative data. Moreover, the report relied on basic data, such as reports, and studies conducted by relevant international and regional institutions and bodies in addition to national reports issued by Arab countries on climate change. Furthermore, it relied on studies, reports, statistics, notes and strategies developed individually by some independent bodies, researchers and experts.

Findings of the Report

The findings of the report point to increasing evidence that climate change will inevitably have direct and indirect impacts on the future of human security in the Arab region. It further indicates that climate change is expected to pose a number of future threats and challenges represented in natural disasters, such as: hurricanes, floods, severe drought, disruption of ecosystem services, material degradation, imbalances in agricultural and ecological systems, and low access to natural resources. This accords with what was stated in the Fourth Assessment Report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “Changes in water availability and quality, precipitation patterns, particularly the likelihood of floods and associated threats, are likely to play a key role in causing adverse impacts on critical areas of human security”.

Based on these possible causal links between climate change and the future of human security and judging by the economic and social conditions of the Arab region countries, we affirm the existence of seven threats to the future of human security in the Arab region. Such threats can be termed “climate vulnerability threats” and may lead to security threats in the future if associated with other factors of fragility and vulnerability. Managing security challenges associated with climate vulnerability threats begins with a clear understanding of these threats which may appear or exacerbate when climate change interacts with other social, economic, political and environmental pressures. We will shed more light on these links through the following points:

• Extreme weather events and disasters: Climate crises and disasters (such as hurricanes and floods) will exacerbate challenges of fragility, increase vulnerabilities, threaten livelihoods and sources of income for some groups of people, or may pose threats to health security. Frequently, the relationship between disasters and fragility is mutually reinforcing, which creates additional pressure on regimes, and such a situation could generate chaos and increased political unrest.
• Sea level rise: Sea level rise poses threat to low-lying areas even before being submerged under water, potentially leading to social unrest and causing migration and displacement.
• Deterioration of human livelihood, migration and displacement: Climate change is likely to increase human insecurity for people depending on natural resources; which may push them to migrate or flee; since their livelihoods will be subject to risks such as: degradation of pastureland, drying up of water sources, decreased agricultural land productivity or crop damage.
• Competition over resources: With the increased pressure on natural resources that may be scarce in some countries, competition over resources may lead to a state of instability, which may reach violent conflict in the absence of effective solutions, thereby threatening human security.
• Food insecurity: Climate change is likely to disrupt food production in many regions; thus, leading to increased prices, market fluctuations, and increased risks of local protests and riots.
• Transboundary water resources management: International rivers often constitute a source of tension and political conflict among countries. With the growing demand for water resources, especially on rivers, the amount of which climate change may reduce affecting the shares of some countries; competition over water use is likely to increase along with the decreased levels of precipitation and poor water resources. This may create complications and conflicts over the management and use of water resources, especially with regard to transboundary rivers.
• Unintended impacts of climate policies: The implementation of climate change adaptation policies may result in unintended adverse impacts, especially in fragile social contexts, or in social contexts with weak economic and social conditions.

Recommendations of the Report

Based upon the above-mentioned frameworks and mechanisms and associated vulnerabilities and challenges, and considering the corresponding visible and possibly invisible needs, the effectiveness of the individual or collective work of mechanisms for climate management and regional cooperation should be improved and strengthened. This will assist to meet the future needs of Arab countries in relation to addressing complex and thorny issues of climate change.

The lack of specialized regional organizations and mechanisms to facilitate the implementation of climate action is among the most prominent observations yielded by the study. Regional management and cooperation in the Arab region have focused largely on assessment studies, knowledge exchange and capacity building. In return, it has not directly supported or enabled the implementation so far, including implementation tools and the leading body responsible for implementation. In addition, it is important to note the absence of action plan and map of partners, distribution of tasks agreed upon and distributed among partners, in the presence of a responsible coordinating body under the direction of the leading authority (the Arab League), and the approach followed to establish a project with its tasks and plan under the umbrella of the Arab League and the competent council.

Strengthening Climate Action in the Arab Region

Towards strengthening effective climate action, Arab countries may benefit from existing regional arrangements and should work closely together to overcome the vulnerabilities identified in this study in the following manner:

• The integration of policies and institutions is imperative. An integrated approach to climate change mechanisms and sustainable development objectives in regional governance should be followed.
• Climate change policies and related action of relevant regional institutions should be harmonized and simplified. This can help pool resources, avoid duplication of efforts and strengthen the local level. Harmonization should be extended to the effective presence in climate change activities, globally and regionally.
• Mainstreaming climate and development policies and promoting a more opportunity-oriented approach for adaptation and mitigation. In addition to considering the establishment of a coordination mechanism among the various bodies of the Arab League engaged in issues related to climate change.
• Implementation strategic approach: To develop a detailed comprehensive strategic action plan incorporating clear objectives and programs along with specific roles for implementation, review and follow-up. A specialized committee may be formed at the Arab League to conclude an approved and binding draft strategic action plan.
• Creating regional initiatives to enhance the enforcement of the commitments of the conferences of the parties and to emphasize the leading role played by the agricultural sector in addressing climate challenges.
• Subregional cooperation: It can be established by identifying strategic implementation initiatives (such as the Africa Clean Energy Corridor (ACEC) or the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Lighthouse Initiative (LHI)) for each of the major regional sub-groups, based on shared priorities, e.g., regional energy markets (GCC countries and Morocco), climate security and livelihoods (Morocco/least developed countries (LDCs)), climate resilient water sectors (Mashreq countries), and climate-smart agriculture (LDCs).
• Improving transparency: By creating an online platform to document relevant regional administration activities and meetings proceedings, include a dynamic list and links of technical assistance and scientific data resources, and further communicate simultaneously with all stakeholders to increase participation opportunities for non-governmental actors.

Development of a Proposed Road Map for Climate Change and Human Security for the Arab Region

The proposed road map which has been developed based on the study of climate change and human security, comprises three main parts, each with its sub-items and scope. These parts are the regional scope, the national scope, and the specialized technical scope. The latter represents the ideas for technical programs and projects in the field of climate change mitigation. While the second part (the national scope) can be expanded upon by conducting a separate study to investigate and examine the situation in the twenty-two countries of the region, which is to be considered later. As for the technical scope, specialized studies inspired by this study should be conducted. Food security, energy security, water security, population issue, environmental sustainability, biodiversity, and the degradation of pastureland, each of these domains has its field. Nevertheless, the literature and recommendations of climate conventions in addition to national literature represent a rich knowledge heritage to be applied and which would establish solid regional action refined and strengthened further by studies and surveys.