قدمت هذه الدراسة لمحةً عن الوضع الحالي لمقاييس تقييم الخطورة الإجرامية، وتستعرض المقاييس الأكثر استخدامًا في التقييم والتنبؤ بخطر العنف لدى نزلاء المؤسسات العقابية والإصلاحية. وتكشف الدراسة نشأة وتطور هذه المقاييس وأنواعها منذ نهاية العشرينيات من القرن الماضي، إلى الحركة البحثية المتنامية في الثمانينيات. وقد تم تصنيف هذه المقاييس إلى أربعة نماذج أساسية مرتبة حسب تطورها التاريخي، وهي: أولًا: النموذج الإكلينيكي الذي يعتمد على الحكم الذاتي للقضاة وضباط السجون والممارسين الصحيين في تقييم خطر العنف. ونظرًا لاعتماد هذه الطريقة على الخبرة الشخصية في غياب معايير موضوعية فقد أكدت الدراسات أن تقييمها لا يتعدى احتمال الصدفة. ثانيًا: النموذج الأكتواري الإحصائي، الذي جاء نتيجة للانتقادات الموجهة للنموذج السابق، والذي يقوم على افتراض أن السلوك الماضي يُعْتَبَر مؤشرًا للتنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي، والذي يستخدم الخوارزميات الإحصائية للتنبؤ بخطر العنف من خلال المعلومات التاريخية للفرد. ومن عيوب هذه الطريقة الاكتفاء بالعوامل التاريخية، وعدم أخذها بالعوامل الدينامية الحالية في تقييم الخطورة. ثالثًا: نموذج حكم المهنيين المنظم، الذي يحاول تجنب عيوب الطريقتين السابقتين، حيث يجمع بين العوامل التاريخية والإكلينيكية التي ترتبط بالجريمة، إلى جانب تقدير الخبراء والممارسين الصحيين. رابعًا: نموذج دمج المراقبة المنظمة للأفراد مع إدارة الخطر، الذي يستهدف تعظيم فوائد العلاج والتأهيل للنزلاء لتخفيض الخطورة الإجرامية.
أولاً: المراجع العربية
• بيراز، جمال؛ وسعدي، حيدرة (2021). الخطورة الإجرامية كمعيار للحكم بعقوبة العمل للنفع العام. مجلة الرسالة للدراسات والبحوث الإنسانية، 6(2)، 228-237.
• سرور، أحمد فتحي (2013). الوسيط في قانون العقوبات، القسم العام، الطبعة الخامسة. القاهرة: دار النهضة العربية.
• كميل، محمد (2020). الخطورة الإجرامية وأثرها في تقدير العقوبة البديلة في التشريع الجنائي الفلسطيني. مجلة الحقوق والعلوم السياسية (1)، 47-64.
• لحرش، أيوب التومي؛ والنحوي، سليمان (2020). دور العدالة الجنائية في الحد من الخطورة الإجرامية أثناء تنفيذ العقوبة. المجلة الأكاديمية للبحوث القانونية والسياسية، 4(2)، 799-808.
• لريد، محمد أحمد (2016). الخطورة الإجرامية ودورها في السياسة الجنائية المعاصرة. الدراسات القانونية المقارنة. 2(1)، 1-21.
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